Prepared June 2026 · Affinity Property Australia
The Caboolture Growth Report
Queensland’s #1 suburb for house sales — and the gateway to a 70,000-person new city. The data is compelling.
$825K
Median SALE PRICE
+26.2%
12-Month Growth
19 Days
Median Days on Market
$620/w
Median House Rent
Data: Cotality (CoreLogic) · PRD Research · Affinity Property Australia · ABS · EDQ · Domain · realestate.com.au · Report Date: 30 June 2026
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OVERVIEW
Suburb Snapshot
Caboolture is a major regional town and one of the most significant urban centres in the City of Moreton Bay, located approximately 44 kilometres north of Brisbane CBD via the Bruce Highway. In 2026, Caboolture was named Queensland’s #1 suburb for house sales — and sits on the doorstep of the Waraba Priority Development Area, Queensland’s most ambitious urban expansion project. See how Caboolture’s increases compare with Brisbane house prices, or get a property valuation estimate to see how Caboolture trends have affected your home.
$825K
Median Sale Price — Houses
↑ 26.2% year-on-year (Cotality Apr 2026)
$488K
Median Sale Price — Units
↑ 25.8% year-on-year (Cotality Apr 2026)
$620/w
Median House Rent
↑ 12.7% year-on-year (Cotality Apr 2026)
630
Annual House Sales (#1 in QLD)
— Highest volume in the corridor
0.7%
Rental Vacancy Rate
↓ Below Moreton Bay (0.9%) & Brisbane (0.8%)
3.9%
Gross Rental Yield — Houses
— Caboolture South achieves 4.18%
Units
Units
Moreton Bay
Queensland’s #1 suburb for house sales: Caboolture recorded 630 house transactions in the 12 months to 2026, the highest volume of any suburb in the north Brisbane corridor and confirmed by Moreton Bay Mayor Peter Flannery as Queensland’s top suburb for house sales year-to-date in 2026. This transaction volume reflects genuine, broad-based demand — not speculative spikes — driven by population growth, first home buyer activity, and established family upgrade demand. High transaction volumes create market liquidity that reduces exit risk for investors.
Demographics
Who Lives in Caboolture?
Caboolture’s population profile reflects a young, family-oriented community with a high proportion of renters — characteristics that underpin sustained demand for both owner-occupier and investment properties in all market conditions.
Moreton Bay
Moreton Bay
| Demographic Metric | Caboolture | Moreton Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Predominant Household Type | Couples with Children (38.2%) | Couples with Children (42%) |
| Single Parent Households | 24.6% | 17.9% |
| Owner-Occupiers | ~55% | ~60% |
| Renters | ~41–42% | ~38% |
| Top Employment Category | Labourer (17.7%) | Professional (17.9%) |
| Median Monthly Household Income | $6,212/month | $7,140/month |
| Predominant Age Group | 0–9 years (13.7%) | 10–19 years (13.4%) |
| Population Growth 2016–2021 | +11.7% | — |
Young, renter-rich, family-focused: With 41–42% renters (one of the highest proportions of renters in the City of Moreton Bay), Caboolture’s property market is uniquely resilient from an investor standpoint. A young, growing population (0–9 is the dominant age cohort), a 0.7% vacancy rate, and rental growth tracking at 12.7% year-on-year creates the structural conditions for sustained yield compression — meaning higher capital values for yield-focused investors over the medium term.
Growth Drivers
Why Caboolture Is Attracting Buyer & Investor Interest
Caboolture’s remarkable market performance in 2026 is driven by a convergence of factors that are structural, not cyclical. The Waraba Priority Development Area, a $399.5M hospital transformation, and Queensland’s most significant new rail and road investment pipeline are collectively repositioning Caboolture as one of SEQ’s most compelling medium-term property markets.
🏗️
Waraba PDA — Queensland’s Largest Growth Project
Declared 2 August 2024, the Waraba Priority Development Area (formerly Caboolture West) spans 2,900 hectares and will deliver 30,000 homes for 65,000–70,000 people over 40 years. Over $350 million in committed government infrastructure funding is already in place. The first suburb — Lilywood — welcomed its first residents in June 2026, with 31 home designs across a 705-lot masterplanned estate now on display.
🏥
Caboolture Hospital — $399.5M Redevelopment
Completed in 2023, the $399.5 million hospital redevelopment created a major regional facility with 130 new beds, expanded emergency, ICU, cardiac and palliative care, and 283 new full-time equivalent positions. As the largest single employer in Caboolture, the hospital generates sustained rental and purchase demand from healthcare professionals who prioritise proximity to their workplace.
🚆
Rail Connectivity & Relative Affordability
Caboolture Train Station is the terminus of the Caboolture Line, with services to Brisbane CBD in 55–60 minutes. A major bus interchange connects to Bribie Island, Redcliffe and surrounding suburbs. With a median house price of $825K — below Petrie ($932K), Strathpine ($890K) and Kallangur ($850K) — Caboolture offers the most affordable established entry point in the north Brisbane corridor while sharing its growth fundamentals.
🛣️
Bruce Highway Upgrade & Western Alternative
The multi-stage Bruce Highway upgrade (Anzac Ave to Caboolture-Bribie Island Rd) is actively widening the corridor. The proposed Bruce Highway Western Alternative — the “Moreton Motorway” — has $20M in planning funds, with Stage 1 alignment confirmed. This new corridor would run west of Caboolture directly through the Waraba growth area, unlocking the PDA’s full potential. Mayor Flannery is pushing for delivery by 2032.
📊
QLD’s #1 House Sales Volume — Market Liquidity
630 house sales in the past 12 months makes Caboolture the highest-volume market in this report series and reportedly Queensland’s number one suburb for house sales in 2026. This exceptional liquidity means properties can be bought and sold with confidence. PRD Research notes Q1 2026 volume decline was driven by stock scarcity, not demand weakness — a price-positive signal.
💰
Caboolture South — Highest Yield in the Postcode
Caboolture South (also 4510) achieves a 4.18% gross rental yield at a $750K median — the highest yield in the postcode. With yields above the 4% threshold commonly cited for positive cashflow investment, and vacancy at 0.7%, Caboolture South represents a compelling yield-focused opportunity at an entry price below corridor benchmarks. Annual capital growth of 10.29% adds further total return.
Structural undersupply and no new completions in 2026: PRD Research’s Q1 2026 Caboolture Market Update explicitly warns that no new houses are expected to be completed in Caboolture in 2026 itself. With 630 annual sales against zero new completions, existing housing stock is absorbing all demand. The $194.6 million in projects commencing construction in 2026 will not deliver completed homes until 2027 at the earliest — creating a documented supply gap that is highly price-supportive in the near term.
Policy Impact
2026 Federal Budget — What It Means for Caboolture
The 2026 Federal Budget, delivered 12 May 2026, introduced the most significant housing and property tax reforms in decades. Caboolture’s unique position — as both a high-renter established suburb and the gateway to Queensland’s largest new-build pipeline — gives it a distinctively positive relationship with these policy changes.
Negative Gearing Now Law: Restricted to New Builds (from 1 July 2027)
Under legislation passed on 25 June 2026, investors purchasing established residential properties after Budget night (12 May 2026) can no longer offset rental losses against other income from 1 July 2027. Properties held before 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026 are fully grandfathered — investors with existing Caboolture properties retain all entitlements indefinitely. New builds on vacant land, apartments and duplexes remain fully eligible.
For Caboolture sellers & investors: This reform creates a structural advantage for Caboolture that is unique in the north Brisbane corridor: the suburb is immediately adjacent to the largest new residential supply pipeline in Queensland. Investors redirecting capital toward new builds will find Waraba/Lilywood the most accessible large-scale new supply in SEQ. This redirected capital directly supports Caboolture property values — and the grandfathering clause fully protects Caboolture’s large existing investor base (41-42% renters implies significant investor ownership).
Positive — New Build Pipeline Adjacency Is Unique Advantage
Capital Gains Tax Reform Now Law: 50% Discount Replaced from 1 July 2027
The 50% CGT discount has been replaced by legislation with CPI-adjusted cost base indexation plus a minimum 30% tax rate on real capital gains accruing on or after 1 July 2027. Gains accrued before 1 July 2027 retain the existing discount treatment in full — the change only applies to future gains accumulating from that date. For discretionary trusts, the 30% minimum rate applies from 1 July 2026.
For Caboolture sellers: Given Caboolture’s 26.2% annual capital growth, investors holding Caboolture properties since 2024 or earlier have already accrued substantial gains. The CGT reform creates a timing incentive for discretionary trust holders and establishes a clear deadline (July 2027) that sellers should discuss with their tax adviser. Waraba new-build investors have the additional advantage of choosing between old and new CGT regimes — giving them transitional flexibility that established property owners do not have.
Consider Timing — CGT Discount Applies to All Pre-July 2027 Gains
First Home Buyer Support — Particularly Relevant for Caboolture
Expanded government guarantee schemes allow eligible first home buyers to purchase with a smaller deposit while avoiding Lenders Mortgage Insurance. The 100,000 Homes for First Home Buyers program targets new residential supply. A $2 billion Local Infrastructure Fund supports new housing supply delivery.
For Caboolture sellers: Caboolture’s $825K median and Caboolture South’s $750K median both sit within reach of expanded guarantee schemes, directly expanding the buyer pool. Caboolture’s demographic profile — young families, high renter proportion, household incomes aligned with Queensland averages — closely matches the first home buyer cohort these measures are designed to support. Lilywood’s 705-lot display village (31 builder designs) is exactly the product type the budget is targeting — generating new buyer activity immediately adjacent to Caboolture’s established market.
Positive for Sellers — Affordability Position Attracts First Home Buyers
RBA Cash Rate at 4.35% — Three 2026 Rises
The Reserve Bank hiked the cash rate three times in 2026 (February, March and May), taking it from 3.60% to 4.35%. Each 25bp rise reduces average borrowing capacity by approximately $12,000. An average loan now costs roughly $360/month more than at the start of 2026. The RBA has signalled a pause at its June meeting.
For Caboolture: With median household income below the corridor average ($6,212/month), Caboolture buyers are more rate-sensitive than those in higher-income suburbs. Each rate rise consumes a larger proportion of take-home pay. However, Caboolture’s role as Queensland’s highest-volume sales market despite three rate rises in 2026 confirms that demand is structural — driven by population growth and chronic undersupply — rather than speculative. Caboolture South’s 4.18% gross yield remains above the 4% positive cashflow threshold for well-structured investments even at current rates.
Mixed — Rate Sensitive But Demand Remains Structural
Bottom line for Caboolture sellers: The 2026 budget creates a uniquely favourable intersection for Caboolture. Existing investors are grandfathered and fully protected. New-build investors are steered toward Waraba — generating construction activity, employment and infrastructure adjacent to Caboolture that compounds the suburb’s appeal. First home buyers are supported into a price range where Caboolture is directly competitive. The combination of 26.2% annual capital growth, 19-day median days on market, and Queensland’s highest house sales volume makes the current market the strongest entry and exit window in the suburb’s history.
Forward View
Rental Growth & Market Outlook
Caboolture’s rental market is running well above the regional average, with house rental growth at 12.7% year-on-year — more than double the Moreton Bay LGA’s 4.8% — against a vacancy rate of just 0.7%. Zero new house completions expected in 2026 will deepen the undersupply further through the remainder of the year.
Units — Caboolture
Houses — Moreton Bay
| Market Indicator | Houses | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price (Cotality, rolling 12 months) | $825,000 | $487,500 |
| Upper Quartile Price | $979,000 | $592,500 |
| Lower Quartile Price | $740,000 | $397,500 |
| Annual Capital Growth (Apr 2026) | +26.2% | +25.8% |
| Median Asking Rent (Apr 2026) | $620/week | $460/week |
| Rental Growth Year-on-Year | +12.7% | +7.0% |
| Value-Based Rental Yield (Apr 2026) | 3.9% | 4.7% |
| Median Days on Market | 19 days | 15 days |
| Properties Sold (12 months) | 630 | 108 |
| New Sale Listings (12 months) | 496 | 98 |
| Land Median Price | $529,000 (median, 109 sales) | |
| Vacancy Rate (March 2026) | 0.7% — well below 3.0% benchmark | |
Upside Factors
Risk Factors to Monitor
Affinity Property Australia · Sean McCreanor · Mob: 0438 115 550 · Ph: 07 3293 9100 · sean@affinityproperty.net.au
Disclaimer: This report has been prepared for informational purposes using publicly available data from Cotality (CoreLogic), HTAG Analytics, Domain, realestate.com.au, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Economic Development Queensland, the City of Moreton Bay, InTheSuburbs, Borro Finance, and various government and financial sources. Property market data changes rapidly; always verify figures with current sources. The Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Bill 2026 passed both houses of Parliament on 25 June 2026. Supplementary legislation to address small business CGT carve-outs and the co-owner grandfathering issue is expected later in 2026 and may affect some investors. Population forecasts are estimates subject to revision. The Lawnton Pocket Road rezoning is subject to approval and has not been assessed as of this report date. This report does not constitute financial, investment or legal advice. Always consult qualified professionals before making property decisions. Report date: 30 June 2026.