Prepared June 2026 · Affinity Property Australia
The Murrumba Downs Growth Report
20.2% annual growth, 15-day median days on market — the data makes a compelling case for sellers. Get your property price estimate to see how Murrumba Downs’ growth has benefited you.
$1.2M
Median House Value
+20.2%
12-Month Growth
15 Days
Median Days on Market
$725/w
Median House Rent
Data: Cotality (CoreLogic) · PRD Research · Affinity Property Australia · ABS · EDQ · Domain · realestate.com.au · Report Date: 30 June 2026
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OVERVIEW
Suburb Snapshot
Murrumba Downs is a well-established, family-oriented suburb in the City of Moreton Bay, 22 km north of Brisbane’s GPO. Characterised by 25 parks covering nearly 19.4% of its 6.4 km² area, a 72% owner-occupancy rate, and a predominant professional workforce, the suburb consistently outperforms regional benchmarks on both price growth and time on market.
$1.2M
Median HOUSE VALUE
↑ 20.2% year-on-year
$799K
Median UNIT VALUE
↑ 26.7% year-on-year
15
Median Days on Market
vs 17 days — Moreton Bay avg
3.5%
Gross Yield — Houses
Median rent: $725/week
4.6%
Gross Yield — Units
Median rent: $580/week
170
Houses Sold (12 Months)
152 new sale listings
Price Performance
A Decade of Capital Growth
Murrumba Downs house values have more than doubled since 2020, accelerating sharply from 2022. The current median of $1.2M (April 2026 AVM) represents a 135% increase from the April 2017 figure of $512K — a remarkable long-run compounding performance for a suburb at this distance from the CBD.
Units
Key insight for sellers: Murrumba Downs house values have risen 20.2% over the past 12 months — adding approximately $201,800 in median value since April 2025. If you purchased at any point before 2023, you are sitting on very significant equity gains. The long-term compounding story is equally compelling: from $512K in April 2017 to $1.2M today, representing 135% total growth over nine years. Units have performed even more strongly in recent years, with 26.7% growth in the 12 months to April 2026.
RECENT TREND
12-Month Median Value Trajectory
Monthly median values from May 2025 through April 2026 show a consistent and steep climb for both houses and units. Property value estimate tools show that Murrumba Downs houses broke through the $1 million barrier in June 2025 and crossed $1.2M by April 2026 — all within a single year of sustained momentum.
Units
Moreton Bay
| Price Quartile | Houses | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Upper Quartile (75th percentile) | $1,298,750 | $753,750 |
| Median (50th percentile) | $1,050,500 | $696,000 |
| Lower Quartile (25th percentile) | $923,500 | $639,000 |
| Gross rental yield | 3.5% | 4.6% |
| Median asking rent (weekly) | $725 | $580 |
| Annual rental growth | +10.7% | +9.4% |
| Median days on market | 15 days | 10.5 days |
Median Price reflects the median of all houses sold over the trailing 12 months; Median Value is Cotality’s point-in-time estimate as at April 2026. The gap reflects strong growth across the period.
Community Profile
Who Lives in Murrumba Downs?
Murrumba Downs is a predominantly family-oriented suburb with high owner-occupancy, a well-educated workforce, and above-average household incomes relative to the broader Moreton Bay region. These characteristics underpin sustained demand from quality owner-occupier buyers.
Moreton Bay
Moreton Bay
Market Activity
Supply, Demand & Velocity
Murrumba Downs is firmly a seller’s market. Houses sell materially faster than the Moreton Bay regional average — 15 days vs 17 days — while new listings have been gradually recovering. Units are even more in demand, with a median of just 10.5 days on market versus the regional 16-day average.
Moreton Bay
Why Murrumba Downs Is Growing
Strong Fundamentals Driving Sustained Demand
Murrumba Downs benefits from a combination of exceptional local amenity, strong regional infrastructure investment, and a demographic profile that attracts high-quality, stable owner-occupiers. These are not short-term tailwinds — they are structural characteristics that compound over time.
🏛
The Mill at Moreton Bay — PDA (Petrie)
The 460-hectare Priority Development Area adjacent to Petrie — just minutes from Murrumba Downs — is projected to generate 6,000 local jobs and $950M in annual economic benefit. Described as 50% larger than the Brisbane CBD, this 15–20 year buildout is a direct amenity and economic uplift for all surrounding suburbs, including Murrumba Downs.
🏅
2032 Olympic & Paralympic Games
The Moreton Bay Indoor Sports Centre at The Mill, Petrie, is a confirmed 2032 Olympic venue within easy reach of Murrumba Downs. Construction runs 2026–2028, with Queensland committing $37.4 billion in broader SEQ infrastructure spending. Olympic venue proximity has historically driven sustained price premiums in nearby residential suburbs.
🏘
Outstanding Local Amenity & Parkland
With 25 parks covering nearly 19.4% of total suburb area, Murrumba Downs offers a lifestyle that is genuinely difficult to replicate at comparable price points. The suburb’s greenspace ratio is exceptional by Brisbane metropolitan standards, and continues to attract families priced out of established inner-ring suburbs.
🚆
Rail Connectivity & Relative Value
Murrumba Downs sits within easy reach of Murrumba Downs train station, providing direct rail access to Brisbane CBD. With a median house price of $1.05M against a Greater Brisbane median of ~$1.1M, the suburb offers compelling relative value — attracting buyers priced out of inner and middle-ring suburbs seeking quality family lifestyle properties.
Structural undersupply context: Queensland attracted over 25% of Australia’s total population growth between Q1 2020 and Q3 2025, while dwelling completions lagged significantly. Greater Brisbane added 58,200 residents in 2024–25 alone — a 2.1% growth rate second only to Perth nationally. Annual dwelling approvals were already 18% below the 240,000-per-year Housing Accord target in early 2026. Land sales in Murrumba Downs remain active at 41 transactions in the 12 months to February 2026, reflecting continued demand for new family dwelling opportunities in the area.
Policy Impact
2026 Federal Budget — What It Means for Murrumba Downs
The 2026 Federal Budget, delivered 12 May 2026, introduced the most significant housing and property tax reforms in decades. Here is what each key measure means specifically for Murrumba Downs homeowners and sellers.
Negative Gearing Now Law: Restricted to New Builds (from 1 July 2027)
Under legislation passed on 25 June 2026, investors purchasing established residential properties after Budget night (12 May 2026) can no longer offset rental losses against other income from 1 July 2027. Properties purchased before 7:30pm on Budget night (12 May 2026) are grandfathered in full. CBA modelling estimates this could leave prices approximately 3% lower than they otherwise would have been — reducing their national price growth forecast from 5% to 3% for 2026.
For Murrumba Downs sellers: The grandfathering clause preserves the investment appeal of established Murrumba Downs homes purchased before Budget night. The suburb’s 3.5% gross rental yield for houses and 4.6% for units already positions it as an attractive rental market — particularly for units, where the strong 26.7% capital growth story adds to investor appeal. Owner-occupier demand from families remains the dominant and most resilient buying force in this suburb.
Moderate Impact — Strong Owner-Occupier Base Provides Buffer
Capital Gains Tax Reform Now Law: 50% Discount Replaced from 1 July 2027
The 50% CGT discount has been replaced by legislation with CPI-adjusted cost base indexation plus a minimum 30% tax rate on real capital gains accruing on or after 1 July 2027. Gains accrued before 1 July 2027 retain the existing discount treatment in full — the change only applies to future gains accumulating from that date. For discretionary trusts, the 30% minimum rate applies from 1 July 2026.
For Murrumba Downs sellers: If you hold an investment property and are considering selling, completing the sale before 1 July 2027 locks in the full 50% CGT discount on all gains accrued to that point. Given Murrumba Downs has delivered 20.2% house price growth in the past year alone — and 135% over nine years — the CGT saving on crystallised gains could be very substantial. This is a material timing consideration for any investor who purchased before 2022.
Moderate Impact — Consider Timing of Sale Before July 2027
First Home Buyer Support Measures
Expanded government guarantee schemes allow eligible first home buyers to purchase with a smaller deposit while avoiding Lenders Mortgage Insurance. The 100,000 Homes for First Home Buyers program and a $2 billion Local Infrastructure Fund were also announced to support new housing supply delivery.
For Murrumba Downs sellers: These measures expand the buyer pool for Murrumba Downs properties, particularly for units in the $639K–$754K quartile range where first home buyers are active. More eligible buyers competing for a constrained supply of listed properties directly supports vendor outcomes and reduces the risk of property sitting on market.
Positive for Sellers — Larger Buyer Pool, Particularly for Units
RBA Cash Rate at 4.35% — Three 2026 Hikes
The Reserve Bank hiked the cash rate three times in 2026 (February, March and May), taking it from 3.60% to 4.35% — reversing all three cuts made during 2025. Each 25bp rise reduces average borrowing capacity by approximately $12,000. An average $736,000 loan now costs roughly $360/month more than at the start of 2026. The RBA has signalled a pause at its June meeting to assess the impact of these hikes.
For Murrumba Downs sellers: Higher rates have moderated buyer borrowing capacity. However, Murrumba Downs’ 15-day median days on market — well below the regional 17-day average — indicates demand remains robust at current price levels. The suburb’s dual-income professional demographic is better positioned than most to absorb rate increases, supporting continued price resilience.
Mixed — Demand Remains Resilient; Professional Demographic Well Placed
Bottom line for sellers: The 2026 budget reforms create a narrowing window of opportunity. The CGT discount applies in full to all gains accrued before July 2027, and the negative gearing grandfathering clause preserves Murrumba Downs’ established homes as attractive investment assets. Selling in the current environment — with 15-day median days on market, 20.2% annual house price growth, and 26.7% unit growth — gives vendors maximum leverage before any policy-driven softening takes hold in the investor segment of the market.
Forward View
Rental Growth & Market Outlook
Murrumba Downs’ rental market is strongly outperforming the broader region. House rental growth hit 10.7% year-on-year in April 2026 — more than double the 4.8% Moreton Bay average. Unit rental growth is similarly elevated at 9.4%. With 149 house and 31 unit rental observations in the past 12 months, rental demand is deep and broad-based.
Units — Murrumba Downs
Houses — Moreton Bay
Upside Factors
Risk Factors to Monitor
Affinity Property Australia · Sean McCreanor · Mob: 0438 115 550 · Ph: 07 3293 9100 · sean@affinityproperty.net.au
Disclaimer: This report has been prepared for informational purposes using publicly available data from Cotality (CoreLogic), HTAG Analytics, Domain, realestate.com.au, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Economic Development Queensland, the City of Moreton Bay, InTheSuburbs, Borro Finance, and various government and financial sources. Property market data changes rapidly; always verify figures with current sources. The Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Bill 2026 passed both houses of Parliament on 25 June 2026. Supplementary legislation to address small business CGT carve-outs and the co-owner grandfathering issue is expected later in 2026 and may affect some investors. Population forecasts are estimates subject to revision. The Lawnton Pocket Road rezoning is subject to approval and has not been assessed as of this report date. This report does not constitute financial, investment or legal advice. Always consult qualified professionals before making property decisions. Report date: 30 June 2026.