Prepared June 2026 · Affinity Property Australia
The Warner Growth Report
Series-leading capital growth, income & mortgage affordability — the premium family enclave of North Brisbane.
$1.23M
Median House Value
+25.2%
12-Month Growth
14 Days
Median Days on Market
$725/w
Median House Rent
Data: Cotality (CoreLogic) · PRD Research · Affinity Property Australia · ABS · EDQ · Domain · realestate.com.au · Report Date: 3 June 2026
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OVERVIEW
Suburb Snapshot
Warner is the premium family enclave of the north Brisbane corridor — a fully established, master-planned suburb whose data profile is unlike any other in the region. Approximately 24 km north of Brisbane CBD in the City of Moreton Bay, Warner holds the highest household income, highest annual capital growth, highest married rate, highest family-with-children proportion, and most affordable mortgage-to-income ratio of any comparable suburb in the North Brisbane corridor.
🏆 Series-Leading Records — Warner QLD 4500
+19.54%
Highest annual capital growth in series (YIP/Cotality)
$9,716/mo
Highest median household income in series (HTAG)
54.37%
Highest married rate of any suburb in series
53.5%
Highest family-with-children proportion in series
20.38%
Most affordable mortgage-to-income ratio in series
7 Days
Fastest unit DOM of any suburb in series
$1.108M
Median Sale Price — Houses
↑ 25.2% year-on-year (May 2026)
$710K
Median Sale Price — Units
↑ 28.5% year-on-year (May 2026)
645.5K
Median Land Price
106 land sales in past 12 months
The premium family premium: Warner holds three simultaneous demographic records in the North Brisbane corridor — highest household income ($9,716/month), highest married rate (54.37%) and highest family-with-children proportion (53.5%). These mutually reinforcing fundamentals, combined with structural scarcity (no new estate pipeline), produce the highest annual capital growth rate in the corridor: 19.54% year-on-year.
Price Performance
Median Value Growth — Houses & Units
Warner’s house median value has risen from $521,474 in May 2017 to $1,233,922 in May 2026 — a 136.7% increase over nine years. The trajectory has accelerated sharply, with the suburb breaking through $1M for the first time in mid-2025 and now posting 25.2% annual growth as of May 2026.
Units
Units
| Metric | Houses | Units | Land |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price (12 months) | $1,107,500 | $710,000 | $645,500 |
| Upper Quartile Price | $1,228,750 | $732,500 | — |
| Lower Quartile Price | $988,325 | $690,000 | — |
| Median Value (May 2026) | $1,233,922 | $875,528 | — |
| 12-Month Value Change | +25.2% | +28.5% | — |
| Properties Sold (12 months) | 172 | 15 | 106 |
| Median Days on Market | 14 days | 7 days | — |
| New Sale Listings (12 months) | 174 | 11 | — |
| Avg Tenure Period | 11.5 years | 8.2 years | — |
Sales Activity
Market Liquidity & Sales by Price Band
Warner’s house market is firmly a $1M+ suburb, with 70% of all house sales in the past 12 months transacting between $1M and $2M. Units are concentrated in the $600K–$800K band. Land sales remain robust with 106 transactions in 12 months, concentrated in the $600K–$800K range.
14 days — the discipline of a well-priced, high-demand market: Warner’s median days on market has held remarkably stable at 13–16 days throughout the past 12 months, confirming that buyer demand is consistently absorbing available supply without extended negotiation periods. Units are even faster at just 7 days — the lowest DOM in the North Brisbane corridor.
Rental Market
Rents, Yields & Rental Growth
Warner’s house rental market has posted consistent growth, rising from $450/week in early 2021 to $725/week in May 2026 — a 61% increase over five years. Gross rental yields reflect the suburb’s capital-growth character: 3.4% for houses and 4.0% for units, both declining slightly as capital values outpace rent growth.
$725/w
Median House Rent (May 2026)
↑ 5.1% year-on-year
$505/w
Median Unit Rent (May 2026)
↑ 2.0% year-on-year
196
Rental Observations (12 months)
Houses — rising steadily
Units
Units
| Rental Metric | Houses | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Median Asking Rent (May 2026) | $725/week | $505/week |
| Indicative Gross Yield (May 2026) | 3.4% | 4.0% |
| Annual Rental Change (May 2026) | +5.1% | +2.0% |
| Rental Observations (12 months) | 196 | 20 |
Demographics
Who Lives in Warner — and Why It Matters
Warner’s demographic profile is the most compelling in the North Brisbane corridor for understanding sustained property demand. The suburb’s high-income, married, family-oriented population creates a structurally robust buyer base that sustains premium pricing and drives above-average capital growth.
Moreton Bay
Moreton Bay
The income–growth connection: Warner’s 40.6% of households earning above $130,000 per year (vs 26.7% for Moreton Bay LGA) means the suburb is disproportionately populated by high-capacity buyers who can sustain premium prices, absorb rate increases, and hold properties through cycles. This demographic depth is the primary engine of Warner’s series-leading capital growth and low mortgage stress ratios.
Growth Catalysts
What’s Driving Warner’s Performance
Warner’s 19.54%–25.2% annual capital growth is not cyclical — it reflects structural advantages that are either permanent or intensifying. The suburb’s position at the intersection of the Brendale employment cluster, the Strathpine MRAC precinct, Lake Samsonvale, and Southeast Queensland’s population growth corridor creates a demand base that competing supply cannot replicate.
🖥
Brendale Supernode — $2.5B Digital Infrastructure
The Quinbrook Supernode data centre campus at Brendale (1.5–2km east of Warner) is among Australia’s largest digital infrastructure investments. Stage 1 ($325M BESS, 250MW/500MWh) commenced construction April 2024. As the campus attracts hyperscale technology tenants and high-income tech professionals, Warner becomes the natural premium residential destination for this new employment cohort.
🏪
Strathpine MRAC — Regional Activity Centre (4.9km)
Strathpine is designated a Principal Regional Activity Centre under ShapingSEQ 2023 — Queensland’s highest planning tier. The $50M Country Club Hotel (opening late 2026/early 2027) and $92M Anaconda Adventure HQ (world-first flagship) will create a major entertainment and hospitality precinct. For Warner residents, this significantly expands the amenity base accessible within a 5–8 minute drive.
🌊
Lake Samsonvale — Irreplaceable Natural Capital
Lake Samsonvale (North Pine Dam) forms Warner’s north-western boundary, with Forgan Cove providing paddle craft access, fishing, hiking and picnicking. As a catchment water supply area, the lake and surrounding North Pine Country Park are permanently protected from residential development — providing Warner with a natural boundary that constrains competing supply while delivering exclusive recreational amenity.
🏘
Structural Scarcity — No New Supply Pipeline
Warner is fully developed under the MBRC Planning Scheme with no active estate development, no PDA, and no greenfield pipeline. All buyers compete for resale stock from existing owners — approximately 178 houses per year against a base of 4,311 dwellings. This 4.1% annual turnover rate, combined with no new supply, creates the mechanical scarcity condition that drives above-average price growth in high-demand markets.
Upside Factors
Risk Factors to Monitor
Policy Impact
2026 Federal Budget — What It Means for Warner
The 2026 Federal Budget, delivered 12 May 2026, introduced the most significant property tax reforms in decades. Warner’s response to these measures is distinct from most suburbs — because it is a pure capital growth, owner-occupier-dominated market with no active new-build pipeline.
Negative Gearing Restricted to New Builds (from 1 July 2027)
From 1 July 2027, negative gearing applies only to newly constructed residential properties. Properties purchased before 7:30pm AEST on Budget night (12 May 2026) are grandfathered in full. The impact on Warner is structural: the suburb has almost no new-build pipeline. With no active estate development, there is essentially no Warner product that qualifies for the post-budget negative gearing regime.
For Warner sellers: Investors seeking negative gearing on new builds will look to Waraba PDA, Morayfield South, or North Harbour — not Warner. This narrows Warner’s buyer base toward owner-occupiers, making the market more stable and less susceptible to investor-driven demand fluctuation. Warner’s core demographic — high-income families buying to live in the suburb — is entirely unaffected by negative gearing changes.
Structural Protection — Owner-Occupier Demand Unaffected
Capital Gains Tax Reform — Largest Absolute Impact in the Corridor
The 50% CGT discount will be replaced by CPI-indexed cost base plus a minimum 30% tax rate on real capital gains (from 1 July 2027). Gains accrued before 1 July 2027 retain the existing discount treatment. At Warner’s Cotality/YIP median ($1,080,000) with 19.54% annual growth, the annual capital gain is approximately $211,000. The minimum 30% rate would generate ~$63,000–$73,000 in CGT per year for a full-rate taxpayer.
For Warner sellers: Owner-occupiers — the vast majority of Warner residents — are entirely exempt from CGT on their principal place of residence. The reform affects investors only. For investors holding Warner properties and considering a sale, completing before 1 July 2027 locks in the full 50% CGT discount on all gains accrued to that point — a material consideration given Warner’s exceptional growth trajectory.
Material for Investors — Owner-Occupiers Fully Exempt
First Home Buyer Support Measures
Expanded government guarantee schemes allow eligible first home buyers to purchase with a smaller deposit while avoiding Lenders Mortgage Insurance. The 100,000 Homes program and $2 billion Local Infrastructure Fund were also announced. Warner’s $1.08M–$1.25M price point sits above most FHG scheme eligibility thresholds, meaning first home buyers are a minority in this market.
For Warner sellers: FHB support measures are more directly relevant to adjacent suburbs (Bray Park at $875K, Brendale at $672K). However, expanded FHB demand at the entry level of those suburbs can create upgrade demand that eventually flows into Warner as buyers accumulate equity and move up the market.
Indirect Benefit — Supports Entry-Level Upgrade Chain
RBA Cash Rate at 4.35% — Three 2026 Hikes
Three RBA rate rises in 2026 (February, March, May) took the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.35%. Each 25bp rise reduces average borrowing capacity by approximately $12,000. An average $736,000 loan now costs roughly $360/month more than at the start of 2026. The RBA paused at its June meeting.
For Warner: Warner has the most rate-resilient buyer base in the corridor. At $1,980/month median mortgage repayment against $9,716/month household income, the 20.38% mortgage-to-income ratio provides the largest financial buffer in the series above the 30% stress threshold. Three 25bp rises add approximately $17,000–$20,000 in annual mortgage costs — measurable but well within the capacity of Warner’s income demographic.
Minimal Impact — Most Rate-Resilient Buyer Base in Corridor
Bottom line for sellers: The 2026 budget reforms create a narrowing window for investors specifically. The CGT discount applies in full to all gains accrued before July 2027, and at Warner’s 19–25% annual growth rate, the capital gains accruing in the next 12 months are among the highest in absolute dollar terms in the corridor (~$211,000–$244,000). Selling in the current environment — with 14-day median days on market and 25.2% annual capital value growth — gives vendors maximum leverage before any policy-driven softening takes hold.
Forward View
Market Outlook & Investment Case
Warner’s structural advantages are permanent or intensifying: the Brendale Supernode creates a new category of high-income buyers adjacent to the suburb; the Strathpine MRAC delivers improving amenity; Lake Samsonvale provides an irreplaceable lifestyle and supply-constraining boundary; and the suburb’s established-only stock profile ensures no new supply dilution. The demand case remains intact; the question is only the rate at which it reprices.
📈
The Self-Reinforcing Premium
High-income buyers sustain premium prices → rising prices reward holders with capital gains → capital gains attract further high-income buyers → structural scarcity limits supply available to those buyers. Warner’s cycle of premium reinforcement is functioning exactly as expected, producing the corridor’s highest growth rate on its highest price base.
🏠
Owner-Occupier Depth Protects Downside
At 68.7% owner-occupation, Warner’s market is not dependent on investor demand cycles. Owner-occupiers hold longer (11.5 year average tenure), don’t sell under yield pressure, and respond to life events rather than market timing. This demographic stability acts as a price floor that investor-heavy markets cannot sustain.
Structural undersupply in SEQ: Greater Brisbane added 58,200 residents in 2024–25 — a 2.1% growth rate second only to Perth nationally. Annual dwelling approvals remain materially below the 240,000-per-year target needed to meet the Housing Accord. Warner’s fully-developed, no-new-supply profile means it absorbs this demand pressure without any dilution from competing new stock.
Affinity Property Australia · Sean McCreanor · Mob: 0438 115 550 · Ph: 07 3293 9100 · sean@affinityproperty.net.au
Disclaimer: This report has been prepared for informational purposes using publicly available data from Cotality (CoreLogic), HTAG Analytics, Domain, realestate.com.au, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Economic Development Queensland, the City of Moreton Bay, InTheSuburbs, Borro Finance, and various government and financial sources. Property market data changes rapidly; always verify figures with current sources. The 2026 Federal Budget measures discussed remain subject to legislative passage and may be amended. Population forecasts are estimates subject to revision. The Lawnton Pocket Road rezoning is subject to approval and has not been assessed as of this report date. This report does not constitute financial, investment or legal advice. Always consult qualified professionals before making property decisions. Report date: June 2026.